the change wiki - User contributions [en]

File talk:Energy-demand-status-quo.png

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File talk:Energy-demand-if-developed.png

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File talk:Energy-usage-by-source.png

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File:Food-funnel.png

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==Summary==

"The world produces enough food, but where does it all go?"

This diagram shows the main inefficiencies of the global food supply.

It visualizes the relative proportion of:
* food crops harvested from farms (a.k.a. the production [[Term:primary|primary]])
* food burned as [[biofuel]]
* food fed to animals
* food produced by animals
* food loss
* [[food waste]]
* food actually eaten

For ''animal feed'', the diagram ''does not'' count grasses, crop residues, or anything else inedible to humans. The diagram strictly shows the usage of ''human-edible'' foodstuffs.

==Methodology==

The thickness of each branch in the diagram, is proportional to the human-edible calories of food involved.

All the per-capita numbers below are calculated as ('''total food''') divided by ('''world population''').

Food Crops Harvested: '''5454 [[Term:kalories|kalories]]/day/capita'''
* calculated by [[Code:food1.sql]]
** SQL code: <code>SELECT SUM(production_kalories_per_day)/7.9e9 FROM main WHERE region_name="World";</code>
MINUS: Biofuels: '''491 kalories/day/capita'''
* calculated as 9% of Food Crops Harvested. The '9%' comes from [https://www.nationalgeographic.com/foodfeatures/feeding-9-billion/] and refers to calories.
MINUS: Animal feed: '''1964 kalories/day/capita'''
* calculated as 36% of Food Crops Harvested. The '36%' comes from [https://www.nationalgeographic.com/foodfeatures/feeding-9-billion/] and refers to calories.
PLUS: Animal products: '''518 kalories/day/capita'''
* calculated from [[Code:food2.sql]]
** SQL code: <code>SELECT SUM(kalories_per_day_per_capita) FROM summary;</code>
Now we're at: 3518 kalories/day/capita
* Call this the "Supply".
MINUS: Food loss: '''493 kalories/day/capita'''
* calculated as 14% of Supply. The '14%' comes from [https://www.un.org/en/observances/end-food-waste-day] which doesn't specify protein or calories or mass or volume, we just have to assume.
MINUS: Food waste: '''598 kalories/day/capita'''
* calculated as 17% of Supply. The '17%' comes from [https://www.un.org/en/observances/end-food-waste-day] which doesn't specify protein or calories or mass or volume, we just have to assume.
* More details derived from the same source:
** Household food waste - 387 kalories/day/capita (calculated as 11% of Supply)
** Food service waste - 176 kalories/day/capita (calculated as 5% of Supply)
** Retail waste - 70 kalories/day/capita (calculated as 2% of Supply) (percentages don't add up due to rounding errors; this causes kalories to not add up either)
Food Actually Eaten - '''2427 kalories/day/capita'''
* Net result.
** However, this is a global average. 10% of the world is still undernourished, living on less than 1800 kalories/day.

Finally, to estimate the food that would be needed to end global hunger, we add 2400 kalories/day {{x|which might be an overestimate, since undernourished people still eat ''some'' calories already}} for every undernourished person. There are currently 829 million people undernourished (10% of global population), according to [https://www.actionagainsthunger.org/world-hunger-facts-statistics]. Divide by the ''world population'', for the sake of comparing in the same ''per-capita'' units used above. '''252 kalories/day/capita'''

The diagram shape was generated by [[Code:make-flow-diagram1.html]], and the resulting image was edited to add annotations and coloring.

==Notes==

This diagram is a world overview. It would be worthwhile to ''also'' make more localized versions of this diagram, such as by country. Note that the diagrams would be more complex because of imports & exports at every stage.

If the diagram was done for rich countries such as the USA, the 'food waste' and 'animal feed' sections would be proportionally ''a lot'' bigger.

This diagram doesn't currently include fish. If it did,
* The top part would have to be renamed from 'crops harvested' to 'production primary', and would include ''wild-caught'' fish.
* The 'animal feed' would include any human-edible calories fed to ''farmed'' fish.
* The 'animal products' produced would include the ''farmed'' fish.
To put things in perspective, seafood contributes about 12g protein/day/capita to the global food supply. [http://olam.wiki/calc/calc2.php?a=%28seafood.production.farmed%20%2B%20seafood.production.wild%29%20%2A%20fish.protein&b=%28grams%2Fday%20per%20capita%29%28world.population%29#]

File:Food-crop-production1-if-crop-choices.png

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== Summary ==
Food crop production - what it would be [[crop choices|if mainly high-yielding crops were chosen]].

(Isochromic world map) (Projection: equirectangular/geographic)

==Methodology==

Made from data:
* [[:File:population.data-float64-8640x4320]]
* [[:File:cropland.data-float32-4320x2160]]
* [[:File:countries.data-int16-8640x4320]]
* [[:File:yields-if-crop-choices.data-float64-895x1]]

[[Code:isochromic.c|Image generator]] code:
# load files
pop << data/population.data-float64-8640x4320 # population counts
crop << data/cropland.data-float32-4320x2160 # cropland fraction of land
yield << data/countries.data-int16-8640x4320 # country codes
yields << data/yields-if-crop-choices.data-float64-895x1 # crop yields in scenario (average kalories/day/acre) by country code
yield [] yields # now 'yield' is a map of crop yields
borders << data/borders-black-on-white.png

# fill in blanks (default values)
crop _= 0
crop >= 0
yield _= 12546.6943934817 # from food1.sql: SELECT SUM(production_kalories_per_day)/SUM(farmland_acres) FROM main WHERE region_name="World";

# scale everything to 2160x1080
pop @@ _width/4
pop @@ _height/4
crop @@ width/2
crop @@ height/2
yield @@ width/4
yield @@ height/4
borders @@ width/4
borders @@ height/4

# make the borders a bit fainter
borders -= 1
borders *= 0.4
borders += 1

# calculate food production
crop @@ density_to_quantity # now 'crop' is crop land in km^2
crop *= 247.10538 # now 'crop' is crop land in acres
crop *= yield # now 'crop' is crop production in kalories/day

# generate output...

out.r := pop
out.r /= 500000 # max people per pixel
out.r @@ spread
out.r @@ negative

out.b := crop
out.b /= 1250000000 # max kalories/day per pixel
out.b @@ spread
out.b @@ negative

out.g := out.r
out.g *= 3
out.g += out.b
out.g /= 4

out.r *= borders
out.g *= borders
out.b *= borders

out >> data/food-crop-production1-if-crop-choices.png

Legend (html):
<syntaxhighlight lang="html">
<table style="font-family:sans-serif"><tr style="line-height:2em"><td>
&emsp;
</td><td>
Population
</td><td>
Total: 7.9 billion
</td></tr><tr><td style="vertical-align:top">
&emsp;
</td><td>
Food crop production primary, 
if mostly high-yielding 
crops were chosen. 
Read scenario: https://olam.wiki/Crop_choices
</td><td>
Total: 74.6 trillion kalories/day
</td></tr></table>
</syntaxhighlight>

File:Food-crop-production1.png

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== Summary ==
Production of food crops, superimposed on population.

Isochromic world map (projection: equirectangular/geographic)

==Methodology==
Made from data:
* [[:File:population.data-float64-8640x4320]]
* [[:File:cropland.data-float32-4320x2160]]
* [[:File:countries.data-int16-8640x4320]]
* [[:File:yields.data-float64-895x1]]

[[Code:isochromic.c|Image generator]] code:

# load files
pop << data/population.data-float64-8640x4320 # population counts
crop << data/cropland.data-float32-4320x2160 # cropland fraction of land
yield << data/countries.data-int16-8640x4320 # country codes
yields << data/yields.data-float64-895x1 # crop yields (average kalories/day/acre) by country code
yield [] yields # now 'yield' is a map of crop yields
borders << data/borders-black-on-white.png

# fill in blanks (default values)
crop _= 0
crop >= 0
yield _= 12546.6943934817 # from food1.sql: SELECT SUM(production_kalories_per_day)/SUM(farmland_acres) FROM main WHERE region_name="World";

# scale everything to 2160x1080
pop @@ _width/4
pop @@ _height/4
crop @@ width/2
crop @@ height/2
yield @@ width/4
yield @@ height/4
borders @@ width/4
borders @@ height/4

# make the borders a bit fainter
borders -= 1
borders *= 0.4
borders += 1

# calculate food production
crop @@ density_to_quantity # now 'crop' is crop land in km^2
crop *= 247.10538 # now 'crop' is crop land in acres
crop *= yield # now 'crop' is crop production in kalories/day

# generate output...

out.r := pop
out.r /= 500000 # max people per pixel
out.r @@ spread
out.r @@ negative

out.b := crop
out.b /= 1250000000 # max kalories/day per pixel
out.b @@ spread
out.b @@ negative

out.g := out.r
out.g *= 3
out.g += out.b
out.g /= 4

out.r *= borders
out.g *= borders
out.b *= borders

out >> data/food-crop-production1.png

Legend (html):
<syntaxhighlight lang="html">
<table style="font-family:sans-serif"><tr style="line-height:2em"><td>
&emsp;
</td><td>
Population
</td><td>
Total: 7.9 billion
</td></tr><tr><td>
&emsp;
</td><td>
Food crop production primary&emsp;
</td><td>
Total: 43.1 trillion kalories/day
</td></tr></table>
https://olam.wiki/Food
</syntaxhighlight>

File:Country-and-continent-codes-list-csv csv.csv

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File:country-and-continent-codes-list-csv csv.csv

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== Summary ==
Table of countries and their Country Codes (ISO3, M49, etc) and the continents they are on.

Source: [https://datahub.io/JohnSnowLabs/country-and-continent-codes-list]

File:Borders-black-on-white.png

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== Summary ==
World map: Outlines of countries, black on white

Projection: equirectangular (geographic)

This image was generated by [[Code:borders-black-on-white.c|borders-black-on-white.c]] which uses [[:File:countries.data-int16-8640x4320|countries.data-int16-8640x4320]] (data from NASA) as input.

File:Population-earth1.png

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File:population-earth1.png

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== Summary ==
An [[Term:isochromic|isochromic]] map of the world population, superimposed on a pastel-color background that shows land, water, and borders.

Everything in black is population.

Note: Some border lines may be completely obscured by populations (especially India's borders with Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Bhutan). Still better than the opposite (letting the border lines obscure the populations).

==Methodology==

[[Code:isochromic.c|Image generator]] code:

# load files
pop << data/[[:File:population.data-float64-8640x4320|population.data-float64-8640x4320]]
earth << data/[[:File:blue-marble-posterized.png|blue-marble-posterized.png]]
borders << data/[[:File:borders-black-on-white.png|borders-black-on-white.png]]
borders @@ negative

# resize things to fit the 'earth' background
pop :: _earth.r # the '_' preserves the total population
borders :: earth.r
borders *= 6 # brighten the lines

# lighten the background
earth.r += 0.6
earth.g += 0.6
earth.b += 0.6

# show the borders in white
earth.r >= borders
earth.g >= borders
earth.b >= borders

# show the population in black
pop /= 800000 # max people per pixel
pop @@ spread
pop @@ negative
earth.r <= pop
earth.g <= pop
earth.b <= pop

# save
earth >> data/population-earth1.png

File:PRIMARY-Blue Marble 2002.png

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== Summary ==
NASA's original Blue Marble

Map of the Earth from satellite imagery

Projection: equirectangular (geographic)

Source: https://visibleearth.nasa.gov/collection/1484/blue-marble

File:Blue-marble-posterized.png

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== Summary ==
Simplified version of NASA's Blue Marble. Yellow areas are generally deserts or harsh mountainous regions.

Suggested usage: for superimposing other data in black and/or white.

Map projection: equirectangular (geographic)

How it was made:
* Opened [[:File:PRIMARY-Blue_Marble_2002.png|Blue_Marble_2002.png (1600x800 version)]] in [http://mtpaint.sourceforge.net mtPaint] (an open-source image editor)
* Applied gamma=150% to blue and green channels (but not red channel)
* Applied maximum color saturation, repeatedly
* Posterized the image, on the most extreme setting
* Replaced red spots with yellow
* Flood-filled antarctica to white

File:Solar-land-requirements.png

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File:solar-land-requirements.png

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== Summary ==
World map: If all energy came from solar panels, how much land would we need?

The land is shown in white.

We would need approximately 0.8% of Earth's surface.

Just for comparison, crop land is about 2.9% of Earth's surface, and pasture land is about 5.4% of Earth's surface.

==Methodology==

Area required for solar panels, if
* all energy came from solar photovoltaics, and
* everyone on Earth lived a "first-world" lifestyle.

Map projection: equirectangular

{{dp
|<nowiki>oecd.energy.tfc</nowiki>
|<nowiki>3784.37 Mtoe/year</nowiki>
|<nowiki>OECD countries - energy usage - total final consumption</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Key World Energy Statistics 2020 (IEA report)</nowiki> <nowiki>
- Page 49: OECD energy balance, 2018</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>oecd.population</nowiki>
|<nowiki>1372683615</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Number of people living in OECD countries</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Population, total - World Bank Data</nowiki> <nowiki>
data.worldbank.org › indicator › SP.POP.TOTL </nowiki> <nowiki>
</nowiki> <nowiki>
Using data from 2020</nowiki> <nowiki>
</nowiki> <nowiki>
OECD countries are: Austria, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States.</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>solar_panel.efficiency</nowiki>
|<nowiki>17%</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Efficiency of an average solar panel</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Some solar panels are more efficient than this, but they tend to be expensive and contain more rare metals.</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>sunlight_average</nowiki>
|<nowiki>200 watts per m^2</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Solar irradiance, averaged over a whole year INCLUDING nights, cloudy days, etc.</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Note: This varies by region.</nowiki> <nowiki>
https://www.newport.com/t/introduction-to-solar-radiation</nowiki> <nowiki>
http://www.ftexploring.com/solar-energy/insolation.htm</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>area_suitable</nowiki>
|<nowiki>20%</nowiki>
|<nowiki>How much of the land is suitable for placing solar panels</nowiki>
|<nowiki>We're trying to keep the solar panels as close to humans as possible - including on city land. But cities have limited space to put solar panels - in general, rooftops are the way to go. An educated guess says that rooftops are about 20% of city land. 20% is also a good compromise outside the city - you don't want to block out all the sun in the ecosystems.</nowiki>
}}

First we estimate how much energy would be needed per person: {{p|this is a conservative overestimate. People in warm climates might actually need slightly less energy because they don't need [[heating]]. The difference is not a lot though}}
{{calc
|oecd.energy.tfc / oecd.population
|kWh/year
|energy_per_capita
}}

Then we estimate how much area that would take
{{calc
|energy_per_capita / (area_suitable * sunlight_average * solar_panel.efficiency)
|km^2
|solar_land_per_capita
}}

Now we use that to generate an [[isochromic]] map:

[[Code:isochromic.c|Image generator]] code:

# load files
pop << data/[[:File:population.data-float64-8640x4320|population.data-float64-8640x4320]]
earth << data/[[:File:blue-marble-posterized.png|blue-marble-posterized.png]]

# convert 'pop' to population density (people per km^2)
pop @@ quantity_to_density

# resize 'pop' to fit the 'earth' background
pop :: earth.r

# make 'pop' represent "for each pixel, what fraction of the land is solar land"
pop *= 0.00053790026 # km^2 per person needed for solar
pop @@ spread

# darken the background
earth.r *= 0.5
earth.g *= 0.5
earth.b *= 0.5

# show the solar land in white
earth.r += pop
earth.g += pop
earth.b += pop
earth.r <= 1
earth.g <= 1
earth.b <= 1

# save
earth >> data/solar-land-requirements.png

# How much solar land is needed in total?
pop @@ density_to_quantity # make 'pop' represent "for each pixel, how many km^2 of solar land"
pop @@ stats

From the "stats" output from the last line:
Sum: 4293152.303951
This means there is 4293152 km^2 of solar land.

Divide this by the Earth's surface (510072000 km^2), and you get '''0.8%'''.

==Would your city need [[solar farms]]?==
{{calc
|1 / solar_land_per_capita
|people per km^2
}}

Simple heuristic:
* If your city's ''population density'' is greater than this number above, then yes.
* Otherwise, all energy could be generated within the city (rooftops, probably).

But this is an oversimplification. Some things to consider:
* Every city defines its borders differently - this could bias the official stats of "population density".
* If [[factories]] are in some industrial area outside the city, their solar panels could be there instead.
* Other factors, shown in the next section:

==Limitations of this analysis==
* Not all cities have the same <code>area_suited</code> for solar panels.
* Solar panel output varies by latitude.
* Energy requirements for [[heating]] depend on latitude.

If we want something really accurate, we might have to analyze things on a city-by-city basis.

Not counted in this map: The land that would be needed for {{p2|extracting the minerals|you can [[Talk:minerals|help calculate this]] - analyze your favorite battery chemistry and solar panel chemistry}} needed to make both the solar panels and [[energy storage]].

File:Energy-demand-if-developed.png

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== Summary ==
Methodology: see [[energy demand scenarios]].

File:Energy-demand-status-quo.png

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== Summary ==
Methodology: see [[energy demand scenarios]].

File:Energy-usage-by-source.png

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== Summary ==
X axis scale: 1 pixel = 32 Mtoe/year

'''Top bar:''' Energy used to generate electricity {{p2|*(for simplicity sake)|Technically, 22% of the ''top bar'' is other things: losses, energy industry's own use, etc. But that would make the graph too complicated for some people lol }}.

'''Bottom bar:''' Total final consumption (TFC) - {{q|Includes, for example, gasoline used in cars, electricity used in buildings, coal used in factories, etc.}}

Total energy supply (TES) - {{q|Also known as "primary energy consumption" - this consists of energy sources in their original form, before any transformation.}}: top bar + bottom bar - electricity

== Methodology ==

Using data from Key World Energy Statistics 2020 (a report published by IEA (International Energy Agency)).

=== Top bar ===
Calculated from the numbers on Page 47 - "Simplified energy balance table" - World energy balance, 2018
{|
|Coal
|(3838.33 - 994.50) Mtoe/year
|-
|Oil
|(4585.52 - 12.59 - 88.52 - 4038.50) Mtoe/year
|-
|Natural gas
|(3261.59 - 1611.35) Mtoe/year
|-
|Nuclear
|706.81 Mtoe/year
|-
|Hydro
|362.33 Mtoe/year
|-
|Biofuels and waste
|(1327.13 - 1012.37) Mtoe/year
|-
|Other
|288.70 Mtoe/year
|}

===Electricity generated by source===
Using percentages from Page 30 - "Electricity generation by source" - 2018 pie chart
{|
|Coal
|38.2%
|-
|Oil
|2.9%
|-
|Natural gas
|23.1%
|-
|Nuclear
|10.2%
|-
|Hydro
|15.8% 
|-
|Other
|9.8%
|}

=== Bottom bar ===
Using numbers from Page 34 - "World total final consumption (TFC) by source" - 2018 pie chart
{|
|Total
|9937.70 Mtoe/year {{p|the extra precision was provided on Page 47}}
|-
|Coal
|10.0%
|-
|Oil
|40.8%
|-
|Natural gas
|16.2%
|-
|Biofuels and waste
|10.2%
|-
|Other
|3.5%
|-
|Electricity
|19.3%
|}

==Design decisions==
Why say "Mtoe/year" when the original source says just "Mtoe" and "year 2018":
: This bar graph is supposed to be a general overview of the world's ''rate'' of energy consumption. At the time of making it, 2018 was just the most recent year with detailed data available. Energy consumption changes every year, but not a whole lot. {{x|The long term trend is that it grows about 2%/year (except for recessions in 2008 and 2020) }}

Why put 'other' before 'electricity' in the bottom bar:
: Because it makes it easier to visually see all of TES together.

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1 million kcal/year is about enough to feed 1 person.

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Food production in yellow, population in blue.

The population pixels have been visually 'spread' to make them easier to see. A 50/50 balance of blue and yellow indicates that enough food is produced to feed the population.

Units: 1 million kcal/year = enough food to feed 1 person.