Archive:000/Calc:If all vehicles were electric - Revision history

Elie: Elie moved page Calc:If all vehicles were electric to Archive:000/Calc:If all vehicles were electric without leaving a redirect: Huge_refactor

2024-10-26T20:29:27Z

Elie moved page Calc:If all vehicles were electric to Archive:000/Calc:If all vehicles were electric without leaving a redirect: Huge_refactor

← Older revision	Revision as of 16:29, 26 October 2024
(No difference)

Elie: qu

2023-01-24T02:47:12Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 22:47, 23 January 2023
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	}}		}}
	For lack of better data, let's assume that this makes roughly the ''difference'' between manufacturing electric vehicles vs fossil fuel vehicles. This number would be added to the ''industrial'' section of [[energy demand]].		For lack of better data, let's assume that this makes roughly the ''difference'' between manufacturing electric vehicles vs fossil fuel vehicles. This number would be added to the ''industrial'' section of [[energy demand]].

			However, this estimate currently doesn't include the energy involved in ''extracting'' the minerals to make the battery - only the energy in manufacturing the battery. Mineral-related energy is probably quite high in the case of [[lithium-ion batteries]], especially for the cobalt.{{qn}} It would likely be much lower for [[sodium-ion batteries]] made from more abundant minerals.{{qn}}

	This page doesn't currently have data on energy to manufacture [[fuel cell vehicles]], yet.{{rn}}		This page doesn't currently have data on energy to manufacture [[fuel cell vehicles]], yet.{{rn}}

Elie: /* Manufacturing the vehicles */

2023-01-22T04:51:01Z

Manufacturing the vehicles

← Older revision		Revision as of 00:51, 22 January 2023
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	==Manufacturing the vehicles==		==Manufacturing the vehicles==
	Producing batteries is energy-intensive. That's one reason why electric vehicles are more expensive.		Producing batteries is energy-intensive. That's one reason why electric vehicles are more expensive.

			Quick estimate based on data on lithium-ion batteries:
	{{dp		{{dp
	\|<nowiki>li_ion.rq_energy</nowiki>		\|<nowiki>li_ion.rq_energy</nowiki>
	\|<nowiki>57 kWh per kWh</nowiki>		\|<nowiki>57 kWh per kWh</nowiki>
	\|<nowiki>Energy required to manufacture a lithium-ion battery</nowiki>		\|<nowiki>Energy required to manufacture a lithium-ion battery</nowiki>
	\|<nowiki>"Based on public data on two different Li-ion battery manufacturing facilities, and adjusted results from a previous study, the most reasonable assumptions for the energy usage for manufacturing Li-ion battery cells appears to be 50–65 kWh of electricity per kWh of battery capacity."</nowiki><br /><nowiki>		\|<nowiki>Factory energy only. DOES NOT include the energy involved in mining the materials.</nowiki><br /><br /><nowiki>
			"Based on public data on two different Li-ion battery manufacturing facilities, and adjusted results from a previous study, the most reasonable assumptions for the energy usage for manufacturing Li-ion battery cells appears to be 50–65 kWh of electricity per kWh of battery capacity."</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
	Source:</nowiki><br /><nowiki>		Source:</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
	Energy use for GWh-scale lithium-ion battery production</nowiki><br /><nowiki>		Energy use for GWh-scale lithium-ion battery production</nowiki><br /><nowiki>

Elie: /* Manufacturing the vehicles */

2023-01-22T04:43:29Z

Manufacturing the vehicles

@@ Line 112: / Line 112: @@
 ==Manufacturing the vehicles==
-Producing batteries is energy-intensive. That's one reason why electric vehicles are more expensive. ''You can help expand this section by joining the {{talk}}.''
+Producing batteries is energy-intensive. That's one reason why electric vehicles are more expensive.
 ==Minerals==

Elie: /* Hydrogen fuel cells */

2023-01-22T03:09:13Z

Hydrogen fuel cells

← Older revision		Revision as of 23:09, 21 January 2023
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	===Hydrogen fuel cells===		===Hydrogen fuel cells===
	~~Platinum, an extremely rare metal, is a key component of both fuel~~ cells ~~& electolyzers~~. ~~Scalability~~ is ~~unlikely.{{qn}} There might be other options that involve only more abundant materials, but with somewhat less energy efficiency~~. [~~https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjT3KORkJL8AhXKnGoFHVzOARUQFnoECAwQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.princeton.edu%2Fnews%2F2019%2F06%2F17%2Fhydrogen-~~fuel~~-cells-mundane-materials-might-be-almost-good-pricey-platinum&usg=AOvVaw2dRNQTnW2TjonbmM1iL84Q More research is needed.~~]		Fuel cells need ''platinum-group metals'' (PGMs). Mineral reserves are sufficient but ''production'' is too low. Calculations are found here: [[Fuel cell vehicles#Rare minerals in the fuel cell]]

	==Recycling==		==Recycling==

Elie: /* Powering the vehicles */

2022-12-24T11:34:20Z

Powering the vehicles

← Older revision		Revision as of 07:34, 24 December 2022
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	So far we've looked at ''cars'' - but what about buses, trucks, planes, ships, etc? So far, there isn't a lot of data available. For these next estimates, we just have to assume that the ratios are ''similar enough''.		So far we've looked at ''cars'' - but what about buses, trucks, planes, ships, etc? So far, there isn't a lot of data available. For these next estimates, we just have to assume that the ratios are ''similar enough''.

	We ''do'' have data on how much energy the world currently uses for ''transportation'' {{p\|which we could also break into subcategories, but we won't right now, for simplicity sake}}. So if we apply the ratios from above:		We ''do'' have data on how much energy the world currently uses for ''transportation'' {{x\|which we could also break into subcategories, but we won't right now, for simplicity sake}}. So if we apply the ratios from above:
	{{dp		{{dp
	\|<nowiki>transport.energy</nowiki>		\|<nowiki>transport.energy</nowiki>

Elie at 11:33, 24 December 2022

2022-12-24T11:33:07Z

Show changes

Elie: Created page with "Suppose we keep the status quo of transportation, but make all vehicles electric. This raises some basic questions: * How much electricity would we need to power all the vehicles? * How much energy would it take to manufacture vehicles - both in the short term and long term? * Which critical minerals would we need, and how much of each? * Could the minerals be recycled from vehicles at their end-of-life? ==Powering the vehicles== Electric cars are..."

2022-12-24T10:40:16Z

Created page with "Suppose we keep the status quo of transportation, but make all vehicles electric. This raises some basic questions: * How much electricity would we need to power all the vehicles? * How much energy would it take to manufacture vehicles - both in the short term and long term? * Which critical minerals would we need, and how much of each? * Could the minerals be recycled from vehicles at their end-of-life? ==Powering the vehicles== Electric cars are..."

New page

Suppose we keep the status quo of transportation, but make all vehicles electric. This raises some basic questions:
* How much electricity would we need to power all the vehicles?
* How much energy would it take to manufacture vehicles - both in the short term and long term?
* Which critical minerals would we need, and how much of each?
* Could the minerals be recycled from vehicles at their end-of-life?

==Powering the vehicles==
Electric cars are more energy-efficient than gas cars, but use a different ''type'' of energy, so this might seem like "comparing apples to oranges". But still we can use this fact to help make an estimate. Let's start by establishing a simple ratio:

{{dp
|<nowiki>electric_car.efficiency</nowiki>
|<nowiki>100 miles per 34.6 kWh</nowiki>
|<nowiki>The "gas mileage" equivalent for an average electric car.</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Average Electric Car kWh Per Mile [Results From 231 EVs]</nowiki> <nowiki>
ecocostsavings.com › average-electric-car-kwh-per-mile </nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>car.fuel_economy</nowiki>
|<nowiki>25.4 miles per gallon gasoline</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Gas mileage of an average American new car</nowiki>
|<nowiki>This datapoint is conformable with [electric_car.efficiency], because the calculator understands 'gallon gasoline' as an energy unit.</nowiki> <nowiki>
</nowiki> <nowiki>
Citation:</nowiki> <nowiki>
"The average fuel economy for new 2020 model year cars, light trucks and SUVs in the United States was 25.4 miles per US gallon (9.3 L/100 km)."</nowiki> <nowiki>
- Fuel economy in automobiles - Wikipedia</nowiki>
}}
{{calc
|electric_car.efficiency / car.fuel_economy
|
|ratio
}}

This tells us that the average electric car has about 4 times the "energy mileage" of the average gas car. But that's without considering the losses in charging and discharging the battery.

Suppose the electric vehicle uses lithium-ion batteries:
{{dp
|<nowiki>li_ion.charge_discharge_efficiency</nowiki>
|<nowiki>85%</nowiki>
|<nowiki>When you charge a lithium-ion battery, this much of the energy is stored. The rest is lost as heat.</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Range: 80 to 90 %</nowiki> <nowiki>
from wikipedia; haven't found original source yet</nowiki>
}}
{{calc
|ratio * li_ion.charge_discharge_efficiency
|
|ratio_for_li_ion_vehicles
}}

Or suppose the electric vehicle uses hydrogen fuel cells:
{{dp
|<nowiki>electrolysis.efficiency</nowiki>
|<nowiki>80%</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Energy efficiency of producing hydrogen & oxygen gases from water</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Hydrogen made by the electrolysis of water is now cost-competitive ...</nowiki> <nowiki>
www.carboncommentary.com › blog › hydrogen-made-by-the-electrolysis... </nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>hydrogen_fuel_cell.efficiency</nowiki>
|<nowiki>50%</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Electric energy efficiency of an average hydrogen fuel cell</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Hydrogen Fuel Cells Fact Sheet</nowiki> <nowiki>
www.californiahydrogen.org › uploads › files › doe_fuelcell_factsheet</nowiki>
}}
{{calc
|ratio * hydrogen_fuel_cell.efficiency * electrolysis.efficiency
|
|ratio_for_fuel_cell_vehicles
}}
In this second case, we need electricity to [[electrolysis|make hydrogen gas]], which is later used in the fuel cell to power the car. Hence we consider the losses involved in both processes.

For comparison, consider a car with an ''internal combustion engine'' that runs on hydrogen gas instead of gasoline: If the engine's efficiency is similar to a gas car, we end up with something with ''less'' overall efficiency than a gas car, because we still have to deal with all the energy losses from making the hydrogen gas in the first place:
{{calc
|electrolysis.efficiency
|
|ratio_for_hydrogen_combustion_vehicles
}}
This ratio would be less bad if hydrogen combustion engines are more efficient than gasoline combustion engines. More research is needed - you can join the {{talk}}.

So far we've looked at ''cars'' - but what about buses, trucks, planes, ships, etc? So far, there isn't a lot of data available. So for these next estimates, we just have to assume that the ratios are ''similar enough''.

We ''do'' have data on how much energy the world currently uses for ''transportation'' (which we could also break into subcategories, but we won't right now, for simplicity sake). So if we apply the ratios from above:
{{dp
|<nowiki>transport.energy</nowiki>
|<nowiki>2890.90 Mtoe/year</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Transporation's energy usage - worldwide total</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Includes passenger and freight/cargo.</nowiki> <nowiki>
</nowiki> <nowiki>
"Key World Energy Statistics 2020" IEA</nowiki> <nowiki>
Page 47 - Simplified energy balance table - World energy balance, 2018</nowiki>
}}
{{calc
|transport.energy / ratio_for_li_ion_vehicles
|terawatts
}}
{{calc
|transport.energy / ratio_for_fuel_cell_vehicles
|terawatts
}}
{{calc
|transport.energy / ratio_for_hydrogen_combustion_vehicles
|terawatts
}}
These wattage ratings would be ''power averaged over time''. Peak power could be higher, but hopefully we'd find ways to smooth that out.

And there we have a simple estimate of how much electricity we would need if all vehicles ran without fossil fuels.

But we're not done, because we also need energy to ''manufacture'' the vehicles...