Archive:000/Energy demand scenarios - Revision history

Elie: Elie moved page Energy demand scenarios to Archive:000/Energy demand scenarios without leaving a redirect: Huge_refactor

2024-10-26T20:29:40Z

Elie moved page Energy demand scenarios to Archive:000/Energy demand scenarios without leaving a redirect: Huge_refactor

← Older revision	Revision as of 16:29, 26 October 2024
(No difference)

Elie at 07:40, 31 May 2022

2022-05-31T07:40:01Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 03:40, 31 May 2022
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	[[File:energy-demand-status-quo.png]]		[[File:energy-demand-status-quo.png]]

	[[File:energy-demand-developed.png]]		[[File:energy-demand-if-developed.png]]

	==Methodology - general==		==Methodology - general==

Elie: /* Methodology - general */

2022-05-31T01:43:07Z

Methodology - general

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:43, 30 May 2022
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	==Methodology - general==		==Methodology - general==
	First we define the scale (X axis) (same for every bar graph):		First we define the scale (X axis) (same for every bar graph):
	: 1 pixel &equiv; 24 Mtoe/year		: 1 pixel &equiv; 32 Mtoe/year

	{{dp		{{dp
	\|px		\|px
	\|24 Mtoe/year		\|32 Mtoe/year
	\|~~The~~ X axis scale ~~for~~ the bar graphs		\|1 pixel on the X axis scale of the bar graphs
	\|~~1 pixel &equiv; 24 Mtoe/year~~		\|
	}}		}}

Elie: /* Status quo */

2022-05-29T05:27:04Z

Status quo

← Older revision		Revision as of 01:27, 29 May 2022
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	'''Total final consumption'''		'''Total final consumption'''
	{{calc		{{calc
	\|rh + ro + cp + pr + fr + aw + industry.energy + non_energy_use		\|rh + rw + rc + ro + cp + pr + fr + aw + industry.energy + non_energy_use
	\|Mtoe/year		\|Mtoe/year
	}}		}}


	==If every country was as "developed" as western nations==		==If every country was as "developed" as western nations==

Elie: /* Methodology - general */

2022-05-29T05:21:31Z

Methodology - general

← Older revision		Revision as of 01:21, 29 May 2022
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	}}		}}

	~~Next, here~~ are the methodologies for each bar graph:		The next sections are the methodologies for each bar graph.

	==Status quo==		==Status quo==

Elie at 05:21, 29 May 2022

2022-05-29T05:21:00Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 01:21, 29 May 2022
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	'''Residential heating''' ~~{{x\|Does not include water heating.}}~~		'''Residential heating'''
	{{calc		{{calc
	\|heating_air_residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy		\|heating_air_residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
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	}}		}}

			'''Residential hot water'''
			{{calc
			\|heating_water_residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
			\|px \|rw
			}}

			'''Residential cooling'''
			{{calc
			\|cooling_air_residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
			\|px \|rc
			}}

	'''Residential other''' {{x\|~~Includes cooling~~, ~~water heating~~, lighting~~, appliances~~, computers etc.}}		'''Residential other''' {{x\|includes cooking, appliances, lighting, computers etc.}}
	{{calc		{{calc
	\|(residential.stfc~~-heating_air_residential.stfc)~~ / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy		\|residential.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy - rh - rw - rc
	\|px \|ro		\|px \|ro
	}}		}}
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	'''Residential ~~other~~''' - scaled		'''Residential more''' - scaled
			{{calc
			\|rw * scale_up
			\|px
			}}
			{{calc
			\|rc * scale_up
			\|px
			}}
	{{calc		{{calc
	\|ro * scale_up		\|ro * scale_up
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	'''Total final consumption'''		'''Total final consumption'''
	{{calc		{{calc
	\|rh + roscale_up + 50% cp + 50% cpscale_up + prscale_up + frscale_up + awscale_up + industry.energyscale_up + non_energy_use*scale_up		\|rh + rwscale_up + rcscale_up + roscale_up + 50% cp + 50% cpscale_up + prscale_up + frscale_up + awscale_up + industry.energyscale_up + non_energy_use*scale_up
	\|Mtoe/year		\|Mtoe/year
	}}		}}

Elie at 04:08, 29 May 2022

2022-05-29T04:08:16Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 00:08, 29 May 2022
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	'''Commercial & public''' {{x\|No data available on how much is heating vs nonheating.}}		'''Commercial & public spaces''' {{x\|No data available on how much is heating vs nonheating.}}
	{{calc		{{calc
	\|services.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy		\|services.stfc / (residential.stfc+services.stfc) * buildings.energy
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	'''Commercial & public'''<br />		'''Commercial & public spaces'''<br />
	We have to scale just the ''non-heating'' component, but we don't have exact data on it. Best estimate: assume that the status quo is 50/50 heating & nonheating (similar to residential). So we scale up half of it.		We have to scale just the ''non-heating'' component, but we don't have exact data on it. Best estimate: assume that the status quo is 50/50 heating & nonheating (similar to residential). So we scale up half of it.
	{{calc		{{calc

Elie at 04:04, 29 May 2022

2022-05-29T04:04:29Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 00:04, 29 May 2022
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	[[File:energy-demand-developed.png]]		[[File:energy-demand-developed.png]]

	==~~Methodologies~~==		==Methodology - general==
	First we define the scale (X axis) (same for every bar graph):		First we define the scale (X axis) (same for every bar graph):
	: 1 pixel &equiv; 24 Mtoe/year		: 1 pixel &equiv; 24 Mtoe/year
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	Source (1) has general stats about worldwide total final energy consumption (TFC), and what share of that is used in industry and transport.<br />		Source (1) has general stats about worldwide total final energy consumption (TFC), and what share of that is used in industry and transport.<br />
	Source (2) has more detailed breakdowns for energy usage types, but they are only based on a handful of countries - mostly developed countries {{x\|Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States.}}.~~<br />~~		Source (2) has more detailed breakdowns for energy usage types, but they are only based on a handful of countries - mostly developed countries {{x\|Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States.}}.

	We use these together, to estimate how energy is used globally.		We use these together, to estimate how energy is used globally.
	{{dp		{{dp
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	{{calc		{{calc
	\|passenger_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy		\|passenger_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy
	\|px \|rp		\|px \|pr
	}}		}}

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	{{calc		{{calc
	\|freight_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy		\|freight_road_transport.stfc / transport.stfc * transport.energy
	\|px \|rf		\|px \|fr
	}}		}}

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	}}		}}


			'''Total final consumption'''
			{{calc
			\|rh + ro + cp + pr + fr + aw + industry.energy + non_energy_use
			\|Mtoe/year
			}}


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	'''Transport''' - scaled		'''Transport''' - scaled
	{{calc		{{calc
	\|rf * scale_up		\|pr * scale_up
	\|px		\|px
	}}		}}
	{{calc		{{calc
	\|rp * scale_up		\|fr * scale_up
	\|px		\|px
	}}		}}
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	}}		}}


			'''Total final consumption'''
			{{calc
			\|rh + roscale_up + 50% cp + 50% cpscale_up + prscale_up + frscale_up + awscale_up + industry.energyscale_up + non_energy_use*scale_up
			\|Mtoe/year
			}}


	==Minimum==		==Minimum==
	This bar graph has not been made yet. It will be based on the [[minimal consumption scenario]].		This bar graph has not been made yet. It will be based on the [[minimal consumption scenario]].

Elie at 03:50, 29 May 2022

2022-05-29T03:50:52Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 23:50, 28 May 2022
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	}}		}}

	===Status quo===		Next, here are the methodologies for each bar graph:

			==Status quo==

	Using data from IEA (international energy agency):		Using data from IEA (international energy agency):
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	===If every country was as "developed" as western nations===		==If every country was as "developed" as western nations==
	Take the numbers from the status quo, and scale up ''some'' of them.		Take the numbers from the status quo, and scale up ''some'' of them.

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	\|px		\|px
	}}		}}


	'''Transport''' - scaled		'''Transport''' - scaled
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	\|px		\|px
	}}		}}


	'''Industrial''' - scaled {{x\|because even though some developing countries have a lot of industry already, much of it goes to making goods that get exported to developed countries. So to make that kind of material wealth for the whole world, industries have to be even bigger.}}		'''Industrial''' - scaled {{x\|because even though some developing countries have a lot of industry already, much of it goes to making goods that get exported to developed countries. So to make that kind of material wealth for the whole world, industries have to be even bigger.}}
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	\|px		\|px
	}}		}}


	'''Non-energy use of fuels''' - scaled		'''Non-energy use of fuels''' - scaled
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	}}		}}

	===Minimum===

			==Minimum==
	This bar graph has not been made yet. It will be based on the [[minimal consumption scenario]].		This bar graph has not been made yet. It will be based on the [[minimal consumption scenario]].

Elie at 03:47, 29 May 2022

2022-05-29T03:47:00Z

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