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==Quick estimate==
==Quick estimate==
===Per capita, developed countries===
{{dp
|<nowiki>car.fuel_economy</nowiki>
|<nowiki>25.4 miles per gallon gasoline</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Gas mileage of an average American new car</nowiki>
|<nowiki>This datapoint is conformable with [electric_car.efficiency], because the calculator understands 'gallon gasoline' as an energy unit.</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Citation:</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
"The average fuel economy for new 2020 model year cars, light trucks and SUVs in the United States was 25.4 miles per US gallon (9.3 L/100 km)."</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
- Fuel economy in automobiles - Wikipedia</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>ev.efficiency</nowiki>
|<nowiki>100 miles per 34.6 kWh</nowiki>
|<nowiki>The "gas mileage" equivalent for an average electric car.</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Average Electric Car kWh Per Mile [Results From 231 EVs]</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
ecocostsavings.com/average-electric-car-kwh-per-mile</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Data originally from epa.gov/fueleconomy</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>world.population</nowiki>
|<nowiki>8 billion</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Number of people alive today, globally</nowiki>
|<nowiki>https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-population-dashboard</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Last updated in 2023</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>oecd.population</nowiki>
|<nowiki>1372683615</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Number of people living in OECD countries</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Population, total - World Bank Data</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
data.worldbank.org › indicator › SP.POP.TOTL </nowiki><br /><nowiki>
</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Using data from 2020</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
OECD countries are: Austria, Australia, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States.</nowiki>
}}
===World average===
{{dp
|total.status_quo
|417.973 EJ/year
|World energy usage - status quo - total final consumption
|'''Most''' of this is ''fossil fuel combustion'', not electricity.
<br />Cite:
<br />International Energy Agency (IEA) - Key World Energy Statistics 2021 - Page 47 - Using data from 2019
}}
{{dp
|transport.status_quo
|120.972 EJ/year
|World - energy used by all types of transportation
|International Energy Agency (IEA) - Key World Energy Statistics 2021 - Page 47 - Using data from 2019
}}
{{dp
|transport.if_electric
|transport.status_quo * car.fuel_economy / ev.efficiency
|World - how much energy might be used if all vehicles were electric
|Estimated based on an energy efficiency ratio: typical gasoline car vs typical electric car. Assuming that the ratio would be about the same for larger vehicles.<br />- Does not factor in the charge/discharge energy losses in the battery.<br />- Does not factor in the energy needed to manufacture EVs (which might be higher than manufacturing combustion vehicles).
}}
{{calc
|total.status_quo - transport.status_quo + transport.if_electric
|TWh / year
|...}}{{calc|...
|(watts per capita)(world.population)
}}
 
===Developed countries===
{{dp
|oecd.total.status_quo
|158.590 EJ/year
|Energy usage - total final consumption - OECD countries (most of which are developed countries)
|'''Most''' of this is ''fossil fuel combustion'', not electricity.
<br />Cite:
<br />International Energy Agency (IEA) - Key World Energy Statistics 2021 - Page 49 - Using data from 2019
}}
{{dp
|oecd.transport.status_quo
|53.737 EJ/year
|Energy used by all types of transportation - OECD countries (most of which are developed countries)
|International Energy Agency (IEA) - Key World Energy Statistics 2021 - Page 49 - Using data from 2019
}}
{{dp
|oecd.transport.if_electric
|transport.status_quo * car.fuel_economy / ev.efficiency
|How much energy might be used if all vehicles were electric - OECD countries (most of which are developed countries)
|Estimated based on an energy efficiency ratio: typical gasoline car vs typical electric car. Assuming that the ratio would be about the same for larger vehicles.<br />- Does not factor in the charge/discharge energy losses in the battery.<br />- Does not factor in the energy needed to manufacture EVs (which might be higher than manufacturing combustion vehicles).
}}
{{calc
|oecd.total.status_quo - oecd.transport.status_quo + oecd.transport.if_electric
|TWh / year
|...}}{{calc|...
|(watts per capita)(oecd.population)
}}
----
<tab name="Assumptions involved in this estimate" collapsed>
* The estimate is based on status-quo ''total final energy consumption'' (which is mostly fossil fuels, currently). <!--i.e. "Status quo, electrified" scenario name-->
* For the ''transportation'' sector, we factor in the increased energy-efficiency of [[electric vehicles]] (compared to gasoline & diesel).
* For everything else, we assume there's no significant increase in energy efficiency. Why:
** ''Industry'' sector: Most fossil fuel use is for producing heat in manufacturing. The efficiency would be the same for electricity as it would be for fuel.
** ''Buildings'' sector: Most fossil fuel use is for heating. While it's true that electric heat pumps ''could'' be more efficient, the majority of heating is in locations/seasons too cold for any efficiency gain for heat pumps.
* The <code>(watts per capita)</code> refers to watts ''averaged over the whole year'', or as some would say, "watts RMS". Not peak watts.
----
The estimate could be an ''over''estimate if...
* increased heat pump usage, cold weather heat pump breakthrough
The estimate could be an ''under''estimate if...
* energy storage losses become significant
----
'''FAQ:''' "Why base the estimate off of the status quo?"
 
This wiki advocates for [[reduce energy demand|decreased energy consumption]] in rich ("developed") countries. But also, poorer countries might need to ''increase'' their energy use. So for lack of more detailed data, the status-quo based "quick estimate" provides a "middle of the road" sense of scale for the amount of renewables that might be needed to reach [[net zero]] carbon emissions.
</tab>
 
 
==See also==
=====More detailed analyses=====
{{empty}}
{{empty}}
<!-- TODO: Start with status quo, then add EVs and electrifying all industries etc -->
===Related===
* [[How much energy storage would it take]]
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