Archive:000/The great battery challenge: Difference between revisions

Latest revision as of 16:30, 26 October 2024

So the world is gonna need a lot of batteries if we want green energy to work properly. The challenge is how to do this without exploiting people or the planet even worse than the status quo of fossil fuels.

Basic requirements

Qualitative

We need battery tech that...

doesn't require too many rare minerals
doesn't require too much energy to produce and later recycle(...)( This implies an additional requirement: Recyclability )
doesn't require too much labor

There doesn't need to be a "one size fits all" solution. Clearly different battery tech is good for different applications. But as a simple viability test, we need to imagine what would happen if the battery tech was scaled up to the amount of energy storage we'd need in a world without fossil fuels.

Quantitative

Scale used: Estimated energy storage that would be needed if all vehicles were electric. See whyIt's a compromise between a few considerations:

- On one hand, we're going to need more than just vehicle batteries if solar and wind are main power sources. We'd also need on-grid energy storage. Also, the same minerals might also be needed for other things besides energy storage.

- On the other hand, battery tech won't be one-size-fits-all: it's possible to have a mix of battery tech (each with different mineral profiles) that could together meet 100% of all potential demand (full green energy scenario), even when no individual battery tech (within the mix) could meet the 100% on its own (limited by mineral reserves). Also, there are ways to reduce the need for vehicle energy storage (public transit and walkability)..

ev.battery

65.2 kWh

Energy capacity of the average electric vehicle battery

Useable battery capacity of full electric vehicles
https://ev-database.org/cheatsheet/useable-battery-capacity-electric-car

world.cars

1.446 billion

How Many Cars Are There In The World in 2022?
https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2021/06/how-many-cars-are-there-in-the-world/

commercial_factor

2

Without this, we'd be calculating for just personal vehicles. But we also need to factor in commercial vehicles such as buses and trucks. These vary widely in size, and data is hard to find, so for simplicity sake, we just assume that they'd add up to about the same as personal vehicles - thus doubling total energy storage needed. This assumption is based on the fact that freight trucks are a somewhat smaller share of energy demand than passenger vehicles, but the trucks probably need a longer range.

terajoules scale (calculation loading)

Minerals

For each mineral, divide its global reserves by scale. This gives you a reasonable limit(...)( and if this limit seems too strict to be useful, then consider it to be a "soft limit" as it's based on mineral reserves. The "hard limit" would be based on mineral resources ), in grams per kWh of battery capacity:

chromium.reserves

570 million tonnes

Global mineral reserves of chromium metal

Chromium reserves worldwide by country 2021 - Statista
https://www.statista.com › statistics › reserves-of-...

chromium.reserves / scale grams per kWh (calculation loading)

cobalt.reserves

7.1 million tonnes

Cobalt metal: Total global mineral reserves

https://www.statista.com/statistics/264930/global-cobalt-reserves/

cobalt.reserves / scale grams per kWh (calculation loading)

copper.reserves

870 million tonnes

Global mineral reserves of copper metal

USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2021

copper.reserves / scale grams per kWh (calculation loading)

iron.reserves

84 billion tonnes

Global mineral reserves of iron metal

Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2021

iron.reserves / scale grams per kWh (calculation loading)

lead.reserves

90.4 million tonnes

Lead (metal): Global mineral reserves

https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/our-natural-resources/minerals-mining/minerals-metals-facts/lead-facts/20518

lead.reserves / scale grams per kWh (calculation loading)

lithium.reserves

18425000 tonnes

Lithium metal: Total global mineral reserves

https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/
Added up all the countries: 9,200,000 + 4,700,000 + 1,900,000 + 1,500,000 + 750,000 + 220,000 + 95,000 + 60,000 = 18,425,000 metric tons

lithium.reserves / scale grams per kWh (calculation loading)

nickel.reserves

94 million tons

Global reserves of nickel metal

Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2021

nickel.reserves / scale grams per kWh (calculation loading)

silver.reserves

500000 tonnes

Global mineral reserves of silver metal

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1114842/global-silver-reserves/

silver.reserves / scale grams per kWh (calculation loading)

zinc.reserves

210 million tonnes

Global reserves of zinc metal

USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2023

zinc.reserves / scale grams per kWh (calculation loading)

Note: This is not a full list of minerals.

If you're designing a battery, consider the limit for any minerals in the battery. It can be calculated the same way as the above examples.

Energy and labor

For simplicity sake(...)( and due to lack of data ), we just have to assume (for now) that any tech that stays within mineral limits(...)( as talked about above ) won't need an outrageous amount of energy or labor to produce. Manufacturing & recycling probably doesn't vary quite as much as mining does(...)( the energy & labor of mining depends heavily on which mineral is being mined / how scarce it is ). Ultimately we do need to assess the EROI of energy storage.

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
-So we need a lot of batteries for [[energy storage]]. It has to be done in a way that...
+So the world is gonna need [[energy storage|a lot of batteries]] if we want green [[energy]] to work properly. The ''challenge'' is how to do this without exploiting ''people or the planet'' even worse than the status quo of [[fossil fuels]].
+==Basic requirements==
+===Qualitative===
+We need battery tech that...
 * doesn't require too many rare [[minerals]]
 * doesn't require too much [[energy]] to produce and later recycle{{x|This implies an additional requirement: Recyclability}}
 * doesn't require too much [[labor]]
-These doesn't need to be a "one size fits all" solution. Clearly different battery tech is good for different applications. But as a simple [[Term:viable|viability]] test, we need to imagine what would happen if the battery tech was scaled up to meet most of the would-be demand for energy storage in a green-energy solution.
+There ''doesn't'' need to be a "one size fits all" solution. Clearly different battery tech is good for different applications. But as a simple [[Term:viable|viability]] test, we need to imagine what would happen if the battery tech was scaled up to the amount of [[energy storage]] we'd need in a world without fossil fuels.
+===Quantitative===
+Scale used: Estimated energy storage that would be needed if all vehicles were electric. {{p2|See why|It's a compromise between a few considerations:<br /><br />- On one hand, we're going to need ''more'' than just vehicle batteries if [[solar]] and [[wind]] are main power sources. We'd also need on-grid energy storage. Also, the same minerals might also be needed for ''other'' things besides energy storage.<br /><br />- On the other hand, battery tech won't be one-size-fits-all: it's possible to have a ''mix'' of battery tech (each with different mineral profiles) that could ''together'' meet 100% of all potential demand (full green energy scenario), even when no ''individual'' battery tech (within the mix) could meet the 100% on its own (limited by mineral reserves). Also, there are ways to reduce the need for vehicle energy storage ([[public transit]] and [[walkability]]).}}.
-Scale used: The amount of energy storage that would be needed if all vehicles were electric. {{p2|See why|It's a compromise between two considerations:<br />- We're going to need more than just vehicle batteries if [[solar]] and [[wind]] are main power sources; we'd also need on-grid energy storage. But,<br />- Battery tech won't be one-size-fits-all; it's possible there's a ''mix'' of battery tech (each with different mineral profiles) that could together meet 100% of all potential demand (full green energy scenario), even when no ''individual'' battery tech (within the mix) could meet the 100% on its own (limited by mineral reserves).}}.
+{{dp
-{{calc
+|ev.battery
+|65.2 kWh
+|Energy capacity of the average electric vehicle battery
+|<cite>Useable battery capacity of full electric vehicles</cite><br />https://ev-database.org/cheatsheet/useable-battery-capacity-electric-car
+}}
+{{dp
+|world.cars
+|1.446 billion
 |
+|<cite>How Many Cars Are There In The World in 2022?</cite><br />https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2021/06/how-many-cars-are-there-in-the-world/
+}}
+{{dp
+|commercial_factor
+|2
 |
+|Without this, we'd be calculating for just personal vehicles. But we also need to factor in commercial vehicles such as buses and trucks. These vary widely in size, and data is hard to find, so for simplicity sake, we just assume that they'd add up to about the same as personal vehicles - thus doubling total energy storage needed. This assumption is based on the fact that freight trucks are a somewhat smaller share of [[energy demand scenarios|energy demand]] than passenger vehicles, but the trucks probably need a longer range.
 }}
+{{calc
+|world.cars * ev.battery * commercial_factor
+|terajoules
+|scale
+}}
+====Minerals====
+<!-- NOTE: If you try to edit ''only'' this section, the calculations won't work in "preview" mode. You need to click "edit" on the parent section "Quantitative" instead. -->
+For each mineral, divide its ''global reserves'' by <tt>scale</tt>. This gives you a '''reasonable limit'''{{x|and if this limit seems too strict to be useful, then consider it to be a "soft limit" as it's based on mineral ''reserves''. The "hard limit" would be based on mineral ''resources''}}, in <tt>grams per kWh</tt> of battery capacity:
-For each mineral, divide its ''global reserves'' by the energy storage amount above. This gives you a reasonable limit (in grams per kWh).
+{{dp
+|<nowiki>chromium.reserves</nowiki>
+|<nowiki>570 million tonnes</nowiki>
+|<nowiki>Global mineral reserves of chromium metal</nowiki>
+|<nowiki>Chromium reserves worldwide by country 2021 - Statista</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
+https://www.statista.com › statistics › reserves-of-...</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
+</nowiki>
+}}
+{{calc
+|chromium.reserves / scale
+|grams per kWh
+}}
-=====Energy and labor=====
+{{dp
-For simplicity sake (and due to lack of data), we just have to assume (for now) that any tech that stays within mineral limits won't need an outrageous amount of energy/labor to produce. Manufacturing & recycling probably doesn't vary quite as much as mining does (the energy & labor of mining depends heavily on which mineral is being mined, how rare it is).
+|<nowiki>cobalt.reserves</nowiki>
-<!-- SCRAP
+|<nowiki>7.1 million tonnes</nowiki>
-If we did have more data, we should estimate the total lifecycle energy of an electric vehicle {{x|(production + usage + disposal) / lifespan}} and approve of anything where the result is less than that of a typical fossil-fuel-burning vehicle (of the same type) (with same analysis).
+|<nowiki>Cobalt metal: Total global mineral reserves</nowiki>
--->
+|<nowiki>https://www.statista.com/statistics/264930/global-cobalt-reserves/</nowiki>
+}}
+{{calc
+|cobalt.reserves / scale
+|grams per kWh
+}}
+{{dp
+|<nowiki>copper.reserves</nowiki>
+|<nowiki>870 million tonnes</nowiki>
+|<nowiki>Global mineral reserves of copper metal</nowiki>
+|<nowiki>USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2021</nowiki>
+}}
+{{calc
+|copper.reserves / scale
+|grams per kWh
+}}
+{{dp
+|<nowiki>iron.reserves</nowiki>
+|<nowiki>84 billion tonnes</nowiki>
+|<nowiki>Global mineral reserves of iron metal</nowiki>
+|<nowiki>Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2021</nowiki>
+}}
+{{calc
+|iron.reserves / scale
+|grams per kWh
+}}
+{{dp
+|<nowiki>lead.reserves</nowiki>
+|<nowiki>90.4 million tonnes</nowiki>
+|<nowiki>Lead (metal): Global mineral reserves</nowiki>
+|<nowiki>https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/our-natural-resources/minerals-mining/minerals-metals-facts/lead-facts/20518</nowiki>
+}}
+{{calc
+|lead.reserves / scale
+|grams per kWh
+}}
+{{dp
+|<nowiki>lithium.reserves</nowiki>
+|<nowiki>18425000 tonnes</nowiki>
+|<nowiki>Lithium metal: Total global mineral reserves</nowiki>
+|<nowiki>https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
+Added up all the countries: 9,200,000 + 4,700,000 + 1,900,000 + 1,500,000 + 750,000 + 220,000 + 95,000 + 60,000 = 18,425,000 metric tons</nowiki>
+}}
+{{calc
+|lithium.reserves / scale
+|grams per kWh
+}}
+{{dp
+|<nowiki>nickel.reserves</nowiki>
+|<nowiki>94 million tons</nowiki>
+|<nowiki>Global reserves of nickel metal</nowiki>
+|<nowiki>Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2021</nowiki>
+}}
+{{calc
+|nickel.reserves / scale
+|grams per kWh
+}}
+{{dp
+|<nowiki>silver.reserves</nowiki>
+|<nowiki>500000 tonnes</nowiki>
+|<nowiki>Global mineral reserves of silver metal</nowiki>
+|<nowiki>https://www.statista.com/statistics/1114842/global-silver-reserves/</nowiki>
+}}
+{{calc
+|silver.reserves / scale
+|grams per kWh
+}}
+{{dp
+|<nowiki>zinc.reserves</nowiki>
+|<nowiki>210 million tonnes</nowiki>
+|<nowiki>Global reserves of zinc metal</nowiki>
+|<nowiki>USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2023</nowiki>
+}}
+{{calc
+|zinc.reserves / scale
+|grams per kWh
+}}
+Note: This is not a ''full'' list of minerals.
+<small>If you're designing a battery, consider the limit for any minerals in the battery. It can be calculated the same way as the above examples.</small>
+====Energy and labor====
+For simplicity sake{{x|and due to lack of data}}, we just have to assume (for now) that any tech that stays within ''mineral'' limits{{x|as talked about above}} won't need an outrageous amount of energy or labor to produce. Manufacturing & recycling probably doesn't vary quite as much as mining does{{x|the energy & labor of mining depends heavily on ''which'' mineral is being mined / how scarce it is}}.
+Ultimately we do need to assess the [[EROI of energy storage]].
-''This page is incomplete - it needs calculations and data.''
+<!--''This page is incomplete - it needs calculations and data.''-->
 <!-- SCRAP
 Quantifying mineral limits
@@ Line 26: / Line 159: @@
 For X, we choose to go with "the amount of batteries that would be needed if all vehicles were electric"
 -->
+[[Category:Energy storage]]