Archive:000/Hydrogen gas: Difference between revisions

Line 60: Line 60:


====How much would be needed, if hydrogen were scaled up?====
====How much would be needed, if hydrogen were scaled up?====
<tab name="General principles">
<tab name="General principles" collapsed>
{{minor|The mass of PGMs needed is proportional to ''peak power'':}}
{{minor|The mass of PGMs needed is proportional to ''peak power'':}}
* For electrolysis systems, the maximum '''rate of hydrogen production''' {{light|is limited by the amount of PGMs}}.
* For electrolysis systems, the maximum '''rate of hydrogen production''' {{light|is limited by the amount of PGMs}}.
Line 66: Line 66:
** {{minor|But the vehicle can still achieve ''short bursts'' of higher horsepower if there's a battery or supercapacitor in parallel with the fuel cell.}}
** {{minor|But the vehicle can still achieve ''short bursts'' of higher horsepower if there's a battery or supercapacitor in parallel with the fuel cell.}}
</tab>
</tab>
{{dp
|<nowiki>world.population</nowiki>
|<nowiki>8 billion</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Number of people alive today, globally</nowiki>
|<nowiki>https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-population-dashboard</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Last updated in 2023</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>world.cars</nowiki>
|<nowiki>1.446 billion</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Number of cars in the world</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Last updated in 2022</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
www.carsguide.com.au › car-advice › how-many-cars-are-there-in-the-wor...</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
hedgescompany.com › blog › 2021/06 › how-many-cars-are-there-in-the-...</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>toyota_mirai.pgm</nowiki>
|<nowiki>30 grams</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Amount of platinum-group metals (PGMs) in a Toyota Mirai (fuel cell vehicle)</nowiki>
|<nowiki>The Toyota Mirai is a common example of a hydrogen-powered vehicle.</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
https://www.heraeus.com/media/media/hpm/doc_hpm/precious_metal_update/en_6/20181031_PGM_Market_Analysis.pdf</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>catalytic_converter.pgm</nowiki>
|<nowiki>2 grams</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Platinum-group metals (PGMs) in a catalytic converter of a car</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Countless automotive forums say 3 to 7 grams for a typical car.</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
But ThermoFisher (which is more reputable, perhaps) says "The recoverable amounts of Pt, Pd, and Rh in each [vehicle] can range from 1-2 grams for a small car to 12-15 grams for a big truck in the US." - Are There Precious Metals in Catalytic Converters? https://www.thermofisher.com/blog/metals/platinum-group-metal-recovery-from-spent-catalytic-converters-using-xrf/</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
I assume they mean 1-2 grams ''total'', not 1-2 grams ''of each'' Pt Pd Rh, right? That would make sense considering they also mention that the ratios vary as metal prices/availability change over time.</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
1 to 2 grams total recoverable is also consistent with the following study: Yakoumis et al 2018 IOP Conf. Ser.: Mater. Sci. Eng. 329 012009 - Real life experimental determination of platinum group metals content in automotive catalytic converters - https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/329/1/012009/pdf</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Still no word on what percentage this ''recoverable'' is of total PGMs - how efficient is the recycling process? Unknown</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>platinum.mine_production</nowiki>
|<nowiki>186000 kg/year</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Global production of new platinum from mining</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Using data from 2019.</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2021</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>palladium.mine_production</nowiki>
|<nowiki>227000 kg/year</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Global production of new palladium from mining</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Using data from 2019.</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2021</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>pgm.mine_production</nowiki>
|<nowiki>platinum.mine_production + palladium.mine_production</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Global production of platinum-group metals (PGMs) from mining</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Assumption: that the other PGMs (iridium, rhodium, osmium, ruthenium) are in such small quantities that it's ok that they aren't counted here (because data is unavailable)</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>pgm.reserves</nowiki>
|<nowiki>70000 tonnes</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Global reserves of platinum-group metals</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Includes platinum, palladium, ruthenium, rhodium, osmium, iridium.</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Platinum-group metal reserves worldwide by country 2021</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Statista - https://www.statista.com › statistics › platinum-me...</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>crop_land</nowiki>
|<nowiki>15000000 km^2</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Agricultural land used for growing crops - global total</nowiki>
|<nowiki>https://ourworldindata.org/land-use</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>electrolysis.pgm_by_power</nowiki>
|<nowiki>0.209 grams per kilowatt</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Quantity of platinum-group metals (PGMs) in an electrolyzer</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Electrolyzers make hydrogen gas from water & electricity. Platinum and/or similar metals are needed as catalytic plating.</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Data source:</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Manufacturing Cost Analysis for Proton Exchange Membrane Water Electrolyzers</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
August 2019 Technical Report NREL/TP-6A20-72740</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/72740.pdf</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Pages 4 and 5: Table 1:</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
  Cell plate area: CCM coated area: 748 cm^2</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
  Platinum loading (anode): 7 g/m^2</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
  Platinum-iridium loading (cathode): 4 g/m^2</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
  Single cell power: 1965 W</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
From this we can calculate:</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
  (7 g/m^2 + 4 g/m^2)/2 * 748 cm^2 / 1965 W = 0.20936387 g/kW</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Sucks that the article doesn't directly specify this 'g/kW' value for us to confirm whether my calculations are correct. Still this is the best data source I could find. The article does also provide a lot of specs on total costs (ranging from $561/kW all the way down to $69/kW for some proposed systems with advanced techniques and economies of scale).</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>wind.capacity_factor</nowiki>
|<nowiki>35%</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Wind power: ratio: average output / peak power capacity</nowiki>
|<nowiki>"The capacity factor of a wind turbine is its average power output divided by its maximum power capability. On land, capacity factors range from 0.26 to 0.52. The average 2019 capacity factor for projects built between 2014 and 2018 was 41%. In the U.S., the fleetwide average capacity factor was 35%."</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
https://css.umich.edu/factsheets/wind-energy-factsheet</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>wind.rq_land</nowiki>
|<nowiki>34.5 hectares/MW</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Land requirements of wind power</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Important:</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
- This is per megawatt capacity (peak), not per average output.</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
- Stats can vary tremendously based on how windy the location is.</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
- This stat is based on 172 different wind projects scattered throughout the USA.</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
- Consider variance: (34.5 +/- 22.4) hectares/MW</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
- This is the total land use, including the spacing between turbines in a wind farm.</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
- This is much bigger than [wind.rq_land_disturbed] which is just the land directly impacted by constructing the turbine itself.</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Citation:</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Land-Use Requirements Of Modern Wind Power Plants In The United States</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
(Paul Denholm, Maureen Hand, Maddalena Jackson, and Sean Ong)</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Page 16</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>energy.tfc</nowiki>
|<nowiki>9937.70 Mtoe/year</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Global energy usage - total final consumption (TFC)</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Includes: fuel (80.7%) + electricity (19.3%) AFTER it is generated.</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Does not include the fuel used in generating electricity. See [energy.tes] for that.</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Citation: "Key World Energy Statistics 2020" IEA</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
- Page 47 - Simplified energy balance table - World energy balance, 2018</nowiki>
}}


<tabs><tab name="Estimate #1">
<tabs><tab name="Estimate #1">
Suppose,
Suppose,
* that all of today's [[energy demand]] were to be met using hydrogen gas
* that all of today's [[energy demand]] were to be met using hydrogen gas
* that all hydrogen gas is produced using [[wind]] power (or something with the same [[capacity factor]] as wind)
* that all hydrogen gas were to be produced using [[wind]] power (or something with the same [[capacity factor]] as wind)
{{empty}}
* that all PGMs can forever be recovered and recycled
</tab></tabs>
 
'''Tl;dr: There ''are'' enough PGM minerals in the Earth, but today's mining rates would be ''far too slow''.'''<br />
<small>We'd have to start mining a lot faster, and find some way to do it '''without''' exploitative [[labor]]. {{en}}</small>
 
'''Calculations:'''
{{calc
|energy.tfc / wind.capacity_factor * electrolysis.pgm_by_power
|grams per capita * world.population
|production_pgm
|PGMs needed for hydrogen production:
}}
 
{{calc
|world.cars * toyota_mirai.pgm
|grams per capita * world.population
|consumption_pgm
|PGMs needed for hydrogen-based electricity consumption:
}}
 
{{calc
|world.cars * catalytic_converter.pgm
|grams per capita * world.population
|recyclable_pgm
|PGMs recoverable from catalytic converters of old gas cars:{{minor|Old semi trucks (not counted here) could also provide a bit more}}</small>
}}
 
{{calc
|production_pgm + consumption_pgm - recyclable_pgm
|% pgm.reserves
|
|Compared to mineral reserves:
}}
 
{{calc
|production_pgm + consumption_pgm - recyclable_pgm
|years pgm.mine_production
|
|Compared to current production rate:
}}
 
This estimate is imperfect and oversimplified, but probably reasonable in a scenario where some vehicles use hydrogen combustion and some use fuel cells. In general,
* If more vehicles use hydrogen combustion, we'd need more wind power but less PGM.
* If more vehicles use fuel cells, we'd need less wind power but more PGM.
 
In any case, producing that much wind power is maybe reasonable if most farmland were to be covered in wind turbines.
{{calc
|energy.tfc / wind.capacity_factor * wind.rq_land
|% crop_land
}}
 
<div style="font-size:70%;color:#333;margin:1em;border:1px dashed #CCC">
More musings about the calculations above:
* Hydrogen ''combustion'' vehicles are about as energy-efficient as gasoline combustion vehicles. But hydrogen ''fuel cell'' vehicles are more efficient. We'd need '''less''' hydrogen than this estimate calls for.
* Home electricity would be done with fuel cells too. We'd need '''more''' PGMs than this estimate. We'd need '''more''' hydrogen than this estimate, to make up for the losses in fuel cells (although those losses could be used as [[heating]] in some cases).
* If electric [[semi trucks]] use fuel cells too, we'd need '''more''' PGMs than this estimate.
* Or if a large enough percent of all vehicles use combustion instead of fuel cells, then we'd need '''less''' PGM than this estimate.
* We didn't count the hydrogen needed in the vehicles that transport the hydrogen (hopefully would be minor, like with fossil fuel transport).</small>
* All this is based on status-quo energy demand, which relies on the fact that most of the world currently lives in poverty. If all nations were developed, a lot more resources would be needed.
* Wind power land estimates are based on status-quo installations which are likely on windier-than-average land. In which case, maybe crop land wouldn't be enough - but then again, there's also pasture and barren land that could be used.
* But in any case, we probably wouldn't actually use wind/hydrogen for everything anyway. [[Rooftop solar]] combined with [[the great battery challenge|batteries]] could probably be a better way to provide electricity whenever hydrogen need not be involved.
* Since vehicle fuel cells use the biggest share of PGMs in this estimate, this is yet another reason to advocate for [[public transit]] and [[walkability]].
</div></tab></tabs>


<!-- TODO: Uncomment this when done writing about PGMs above (a more immediate and important mention that should be on here first)
<!-- TODO: Uncomment this when done writing about PGMs above (a more immediate and important mention that should be on here first)