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[[Category:Energy storage]]
:{{light|<small>''This page is about NMC-type lithium-ion batteries (nickel-manganese-cobalt). For cobalt-free lithium-based batteries, see also: [[LFP batteries]].''</small>}}
<!--
<tabs><tab name="short intro">
Lithium-ion batteries are some of the most commonly used batteries today. But are they a good solution to the [[energy storage]] problem? Short answer: no.
Lithium-ion batteries are some of the most commonly used batteries today. But are they a good solution to the [[energy storage]] problem? Short answer: no.
</tab><tab name="intro">
-->
'''Lithium-ion''' (or li-ion for short) is one of the most common types of rechargeable '''batteries''' used today{{x|they're popular because they can hold more charge than most other rechargeable batteries can}} - found in everything from phones to tablets to [[electric vehicles]]. But when it comes to large-scale [[energy storage]]{{x|which ''includes'' scaling up EVs. The only reason why today's EVs ''can'' use li-ion is because they're such a small fraction of vehicles on the road so far.}} - the kind needed for green [[energy]] to solve [[climate change]] - li-ion batteries '''''can't''''' be produced in the insanely massive amount that would be needed{{x|over 20 times more li-ion batteries than have ever been produced in the history of the world{{x|calculation will be added to this page soon}} }}. There will [[the great battery challenge|have to]] be other solutions.
<!--
TODO: Add calculation comparing "world.cars*ev.battery" with some sorta integral of the data i found on global li-ion battery production over the years (gotta find the link again)
TALK: Should I uncomment the tab system above that offers short vs regular intro length?
</tab></tabs>
-->
{{considerations}}


====Concerns====
==Cobalt and other minerals==
{|class="wikitable"
{{sum|Major problem|bad}}
|[[#Need for cobalt]]
If all the world's vehicles were lithium-ion electric, how many minerals would be needed:
|Major problem
|-
|[[#Need for lithium]]
|Minor problem
|-
|[[#Energy in manufacturing]]
|Manageable
|-
|Recycling
|Probably solvable
|-
|Performance in winter
|Manageable
|}
 
==Need for cobalt==
Suppose all vehicles ran on lithium-ion batteries:
{{dp
{{dp
|ev.battery
|ev.battery
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|<nowiki>https://batteryguy.com/kb/knowledge-base/how-to-calculate-the-lithium-content-in-a-battery/</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
|<nowiki>https://batteryguy.com/kb/knowledge-base/how-to-calculate-the-lithium-content-in-a-battery/</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
The article says lithium per amp hour. We convert this to lithium per watt hour (energy), by including the cell voltage.</nowiki>
The article says lithium per amp hour. We convert this to lithium per watt hour (energy), by including the cell voltage.</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>lithium.reserves</nowiki>
|<nowiki>18425000 tonnes</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Lithium metal: Total global mineral reserves</nowiki>
|<nowiki>https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Added up all the countries: 9,200,000 + 4,700,000 + 1,900,000 + 1,500,000 + 750,000 + 220,000 + 95,000 + 60,000 = 18,425,000 metric tons</nowiki>
}}
}}
{{dp
{{dp
Line 73: Line 62:
|<nowiki>https://www.statista.com/statistics/264930/global-cobalt-reserves/</nowiki>
|<nowiki>https://www.statista.com/statistics/264930/global-cobalt-reserves/</nowiki>
}}
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>nickel.reserves</nowiki>
|<nowiki>94 million tons</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Global reserves of nickel metal</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2021</nowiki>
}}
{{dp
|<nowiki>lithium.reserves</nowiki>
|<nowiki>18425000 tonnes</nowiki>
|<nowiki>Lithium metal: Total global mineral reserves</nowiki>
|<nowiki>https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/</nowiki><br /><nowiki>
Added up all the countries: 9,200,000 + 4,700,000 + 1,900,000 + 1,500,000 + 750,000 + 220,000 + 95,000 + 60,000 = 18,425,000 metric tons</nowiki>
}}
<tab name="(average-case estimate)" style="background:#0000FF22;margin:0 1em">
According to a meta-analysis: "In 2020, an average lithium-ion battery contained around '''28.9''' kilograms of nickel, '''7.7''' kilogram of cobalt, and '''5.9''' kilogram of lithium. [...] Based on the average battery composition in 2020 with 60 kWh capacity."
<ref>Oct 9, 2023, [https://www.statista.com/statistics/1247675/weight-of-metal-in-lithium-ion-batteries/ Weight of metal in lithium-ion batteries 2020 - Statista]</ref> Also note that 60 kWh is considered pretty "average" for the battery capacity of an [[electric car]]. <ref>https://ev-database.org/cheatsheet/useable-battery-capacity-electric-car</ref>
So, knowing this, we can do a quick estimate:
<!-- TALK: maybe better define "reserves"? And maybe refactor all the "ref"s into "dp"s? -->
{{calc
|28.9 kg * world.cars * commercial_factor
|% nickel.reserves
}}
{{calc
{{calc
|li_ion.cobalt_by_energy * world.cars * ev.battery * commercial_factor
|7.7 kg * world.cars * commercial_factor
|% cobalt.reserves
|% cobalt.reserves
}}
}}
So, besides needing '''far more''' cobalt than we could ever mine from the earth{{x|well, technically maybe we'd find more cobalt reserves, but don't count on it}}, there would also be major environmental damage and [[cobalt#child labor|child labor]] if we tried.
<!--
TODO: add more calculations: labor footprint, energy footprint
TALK: should we compare to cobalt ''resources'' rather than ''reserves'', to see if it's viable? If it is - still, how do we quantify the environmental footprint of mining that much cobalt?
-->
<small>This problem could maybe be overcome by solving [[lithium-ion/challenge 1]].</small>


==Need for lithium==
Consider a similar calculation for lithium:
{{calc
{{calc
|li_ion.lithium_by_energy * world.cars * ev.battery * commercial_factor
|5.9 kg * world.cars * commercial_factor
|% lithium.reserves
|% lithium.reserves
}}
}}
At least it's ''viable'' - although there would still probably be a big environmental footprint.{{qn}} We'd have to make sure that '''all''' EV batteries eventually get recycled.
</tab>
<!-- TODO: add more calculations: labor footprint, energy footprint, and how long it would take to produce that much lithium at current production rates
    TALK: maybe also mention other pollution caused by lithium mining - but it might be more qualitative and should probably be placed in the main [[lithium]] page first. Same for [[cobalt]] btw. -->


Note: this still doesn't include the additional [[energy storage]] we'd need on the power grid if [[solar]] and [[wind]] were major [[energy]] sources. This is less than what's needed for vehicles,<!-- TODO: link to the page that has those calculations--> but in total we'd probably slightly exceed global lithium reserves.
'''Cobalt is the biggest issue''', as we'd need to somehow mine '''3 times''' more cobalt than Earth's mineral reserves. Such a scenario would motivate companies to strip-mine the ocean floor in desperate attempt to obtain enough cobalt - which would be disastrous for wildlife. Also note that cobalt is notorious for being mined by child labor. {{npn}}
 
Lithium and nickel are also cutting it close, nearly exhausting their global mineral reserves as well. {{pn|TODO: How would that compare to the envionmental impact of oil mining (status quo)? {{rn}} }}
 
Best case, these minerals would only be mined once, assuming the EV batteries get recycled properly at their end of life. If not, the situation would get even worse with time, with even more mining needed than what was calculated above.
 
Note that the exact proportion of cobalt & nickel can vary by battery design, but there are always tradeoffs in the engineering. Cobalt is needed for stability (i.e. to prevent batteries from catching fire when minorly damaged).
 
As great as lithium-ion is for small electronic devices, it's simply not scalable enough for large-scale [[energy storage]], because of the minerals. If we want all vehicles to be electric, we'll need some other battery type such as [[sodium-ion]].


==Energy in manufacturing==
==Energy in manufacturing==
{{sum|Not ''too'' bad}}
Averaged over the lifespan of the vehicle:
Averaged over the lifespan of the vehicle:
{{dp
{{dp
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From this perspective, it seems that the energy in ''manufacturing'' the battery is reasonable enough.
From this perspective, it seems that the energy in ''manufacturing'' the battery is reasonable enough.


Note: This doesn't include the energy involved in ''extracting'' the minerals to make the battery - which we already saw was an issue anyway (see above).
Note: This doesn't include the energy involved in ''mining for'' the minerals to make the battery. {{x|In general, the rarer the mineral, the more energy it takes to mine.}} But we already saw earlier that mining (cobalt) was a problem regardless.


Similar calculations could be done for non-vehicle energy storage.<!-- TODO: add them -->
<small>Similar calculations could be done for non-vehicle energy storage.</small><!-- TODO: add them -->


==Recyclability==
{{sum|{{rn}} }}
{{empty}}
<!-- INTRO: In the earlier sections regarding minerals, the estimates were assuming that that many minerals would only have to be mined once, and after that, the batteries could be perfectly recycled into new batteries. But is that really the case? -->
<!-- TALK: maybe add more sections/considerations?:
* performance in winter
-->
==See also==
==See also==
* [[Sodium-ion batteries]] - a possible solution
* [[Sodium-ion batteries]] - possibly a more scalable [[energy storage]] solution, but it isn't on the market yet.<!-- NOTE: update this if anything changes! -->
 
==References==
<references />
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