Archive:000/The great battery challenge: Difference between revisions

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-So we need a lot of batteries for [[energy storage]]. It has to be done in a way that...
+So the world is gonna need [[energy storage|a lot of batteries]] if we want green [[energy]] to work properly. The ''challenge'' is how to do this without exploiting ''people or the planet'' even worse than the status quo of [[fossil fuels]].
+==Basic requirements==
+===Qualitative===
+We need battery tech that...
 * doesn't require too many rare [[minerals]]
 * doesn't require too much [[energy]] to produce and later recycle{{x|This implies an additional requirement: Recyclability}}
 * doesn't require too much [[labor]]
-These doesn't need to be a "one size fits all" solution. Clearly different battery tech is good for different applications. But as a simple [[Term:viable|viability]] test, we need to imagine what would happen if the battery tech was scaled up to meet most of the would-be demand for energy storage in a green-energy solution.
+There ''doesn't'' need to be a "one size fits all" solution. Clearly different battery tech is good for different applications. But as a simple [[Term:viable|viability]] test, we need to imagine what would happen if the battery tech was scaled up to the amount of [[energy storage]] we'd need in a world without fossil fuels.
+===Quantitative===
+Scale used: Estimated energy storage that would be needed if all vehicles were electric. {{p2|See why|It's a compromise between two considerations:<br /><br />- On one hand, we're going to need ''more'' than just vehicle batteries if [[solar]] and [[wind]] are main power sources. We'd also need on-grid energy storage.<br /><br />- On the other hand, battery tech won't be one-size-fits-all: it's possible to have a ''mix'' of battery tech (each with different mineral profiles) that could ''together'' meet 100% of all potential demand (full green energy scenario), even when no ''individual'' battery tech (within the mix) could meet the 100% on its own (limited by mineral reserves). Also, there are ways to reduce the need for vehicle energy storage ([[public transit]] and [[walkability]]).}}.
-Scale used: The amount of energy storage that would be needed if all vehicles were electric. {{p2|See why|It's a compromise between two considerations:<br />- We're going to need more than just vehicle batteries if [[solar]] and [[wind]] are main power sources; we'd also need on-grid energy storage. But,<br />- Battery tech won't be one-size-fits-all; it's possible there's a ''mix'' of battery tech (each with different mineral profiles) that could together meet 100% of all potential demand (full green energy scenario), even when no ''individual'' battery tech (within the mix) could meet the 100% on its own (limited by mineral reserves).}}.
+{{dp
-{{calc
+|ev.battery
+|65.2 kWh
+|Energy capacity of the average electric vehicle battery
+|<cite>Useable battery capacity of full electric vehicles</cite><br />https://ev-database.org/cheatsheet/useable-battery-capacity-electric-car
+}}
+{{dp
+|world.cars
+|1.446 billion
 |
+|<cite>How Many Cars Are There In The World in 2022?</cite><br />https://hedgescompany.com/blog/2021/06/how-many-cars-are-there-in-the-world/
+}}
+{{dp
+|commercial_factor
+|2
 |
+|Without this, we'd be calculating for just personal vehicles. But we also need to factor in commercial vehicles such as buses and trucks. These vary widely in size, and data is hard to find, so for simplicity sake, we just assume that they'd add up to about the same as personal vehicles - thus doubling total energy storage needed. This assumption is based on the fact that freight trucks are a somewhat smaller share of [[energy demand scenarios|energy demand]] than passenger vehicles, but the trucks probably need a longer range.
+}}
+{{calc
+|world.cars * ev.battery * commercial_factor
+|terajoules
+|scale
 }}
-For each mineral, divide its ''global reserves'' by the energy storage amount above. This gives you a reasonable limit (in grams per kWh).
+====Minerals====
+For each mineral, divide its ''global reserves'' by <tt>scale</tt>. This gives you a reasonable limit (in <tt>grams per kWh</tt>).
-=====Energy and labor=====
+====Energy and labor====
 For simplicity sake{{x|and due to lack of data}}, we just have to assume (for now) that any tech that stays within ''mineral'' limits{{x|as talked about above}} won't need an outrageous amount of energy or labor to produce. Manufacturing & recycling probably doesn't vary quite as much as mining does{{x|the energy & labor of mining depends heavily on which mineral is being mined, how rare it is}}.
 Ultimately we do need to assess the [[EROI of energy storage]].
-''This page is incomplete - it needs calculations and data.''
+<!--''This page is incomplete - it needs calculations and data.''-->
 <!-- SCRAP
 Quantifying mineral limits